There are few, if any doubts left that Senator Obama will be the challenger of Senator McCain for the White House. And John McCain’s candidacy is in trouble, even before it has lifted off. Up to a short while ago all the focus was on the Democratic primaries and John McCain could tour the country, flexing his muscles for the real fight virtually uncontested.

This is over and it merits a look at the weaknesses of John McCain that will leave his campaign wide open for defeat.

His first and foremost weakness is: He is a Republican candidate in an electoral environment that strongly favours the Democrats. Largely uncommented by the corporate media were the congressional special elections in 2008. Up to now, these Representatives were elected: Jackie Speier (D), Bill Foster (D), André Carson (D), Steve Scalise (R), Don Cazayoux (D), Travis Childers (D). See a pattern here ? Some may argue and are argueing that the Democratic led Congress has abysmal job approval rates, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into votes for Republicans, because they are part of that Congress, too. Expect independent candidates to have a strong showing in fall.

John McCain’s second problem revolves around his own homefront, too and is the flip side of the same coin. George W. Bush and his hard-core supporters. There are still 30% of Americans who approve of President Bush. That is many votes and John McCain cannot afford to lose them. There is a sizeable chunk of Republican voters, who are tieing their votes to issues like abortion and gay rights. And these voters are less than impressed by McCain’s maverick stance of former years, so John McCain was still losing primary votes to Mike Huckabee, even after he was the presumptive nominee.

Result: While the Republicans are hemorrhaging votes on the moderate side of the spectrum due to Bush’s desastrous presidency, McCain opens new wounds on the right.

John McCain’s third and biggest problem is Barack Obama. You couldn’t invent a race with more different candidates if you tried hard. McCain would be the oldest President at the time of his inauguration, Obama is a quarter of a century younger. John McCain is not fully disclosing his health records, and that is, given his history of health problems, really a bothering fact. Obama is young and apparently healthy, so the question is simply not asked. Obama is a 21st century person and John McCain is firmly rooted in the 20th century. John McCain will not be able to shake the Iraq war off, Obama was against the war from the beginning and doesn’t have this problem to begin with. And, on the purely material side. Obama has the most outstanding campaign funding machine and John McCain’s a pauper in comparison. Obama is running a grass roots campaign bringing out new voters that have not voted before. I think it is safe to assume, that nothing a Republican candidate has to offer will bring out new voters in droves this year. Seeing the historic impact of an Obama presidency, John McCain’s advertising strategist Mark McKinnon made good on his vow not to lead a campaign against Senator Obama, because: [Mr. Obama’s election to the presidency] “would send a great message to the country and the world.”. If he says that..

I am not saying this is going to be a landslide affair for Barack Obama in November. There are troubles ahead for Senator Obama as well. There is after all, as Hillary Clinton couldn’t stop pointing out and thus legitimatising the notion, a part of the electorate not prepared to vote for, let’s face it, an African American. This can be overcome at least partly by bringing out new voters and some of those who can’t bring themselves to vote for Obama will not vote for McCain either, but rather stay at home. But, I think, John McCain’s problems are insurmountable really. The November elections are Senator Obama’s to lose, let’s just hope he doesn’t.
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